The orbits of asteroids around the sun change over time, and the smallest things can shift them.
can use asteroid data to calculate their trajectories, predict their future motion, and assess whether or not there is a possibility of an impact. The Center for Near Earth Object Studies, based at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "We've never modeled an asteroid's trajectory to this precision before." "The OSIRIS-REx data give us so much more precise information, we can test the limits of our models and calculate the future trajectory of Bennu to a very high degree of certainty through 2135," Farnocchia said. This allowed scientists to learn that it's a rubble-pile asteroid shaped like a spinning top, composed of rocks bound together by gravity. The sample will arrive in September 2023.Įven though OSIRIS-REx is a couple of years from returning to Earth, it has been sending back data revealing what it learned about Bennu the entire time. In addition to gathering unprecedented information, the spacecraft collected a sample from the asteroid's surface that is currently heading back to Earth. The OSIRIS-REx mission, or Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer, arrived at Bennu in December 2018 and departed earlier this year on May 10. The researchers agree that the risk of Bennu impacting Earth is low, and NASA will continue to observe the asteroid's orbit for years to come. 24, 2182, with a 1 in 2,700 chance of impacting Earth on that day. This could also affect the chances of Bennu impacting Earth after 2135.īennu will make its most significant close approach on Sept. While Bennu won't come close enough to pose a threat to Earth then, knowing its exact trajectory can help scientists better understand how the gravity of our planet will change the asteroid's future orbit around the sun. The asteroid will make its next closest approach to Earth in 2135. The OSIRIS-REx mission has provided an extraordinary opportunity to refine and test these models, helping us better predict where Bennu will be when it makes its close approach to Earth more than a century from now." "We carry out this endeavor through continuing astronomical surveys that collect data to discover previously unknown objects and refine our orbital models for them. "NASA's Planetary Defense mission is to find and monitor asteroids and comets that can come near Earth and may pose a hazard to our planet," said Kelly Fast, program manager for the Near-Earth Object Observations Program at NASA headquarters in Washington, in a statement. If Bennu does impact Earth, it would create a crater between 10 to 20 times its size and cause an area of devastation that could reach 100 times the size of the crater, said Lindley Johnson, NASA's planetary defense officer.Ī study based on the findings published Wednesday in the journal Icarus. I think overall the situation has improved and I'm not any more concerned about than I was before." "We actually now have a much better knowledge of the Bennu trajectory and we can better constrain what the possible pathways to impact are. "It's not a significant change and the impact probability is pretty much the same," said lead study author Davide Farnocchia, a scientist at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Prior to OSIRIS-REx visiting and studying Bennu, researchers thought the overall probability of Bennu impacting Earth through 2200 was 1 in 2,700.Įven though this means the odds are greater of Bennu hitting Earth in the future, the researchers don't believe the change is great enough to worry about.
The findings show Bennu has a 1 in 1,750 chance of impacting Earth through 2300 - higher than previously thought. The data collected by NASA's OSIRIS-REx mission over two yearsnallowed for precision tracking of Bennu's movements through 2300, reducing the uncertainties scientists had about the asteroid's future orbit. Thanks to a visit by a NASA spacecraft, scientists have a much greater understanding of the near-Earth asteroid, its upcoming closest approaches to Earth - and whether it could impact our planet. Bennu is one of the most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system.
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